Eric Lin | YPFP Member | August 21, 2024 | Photo Credit: Flickr
Beyond Water, Beyond Land
With explosive technological advancements in the past few decades, modern warfare now relies heavily on space capabilities and its supporting infrastructure. The ability to access information quickly from the ground, communicate effectively in warzones, and navigate missile strikes with precision often provides the prerequisite for winning wars. To leverage the full potential of space technology in developing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a world-class military, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is making massive investments in domestic research and development, utilizing public-private partnerships, and exploiting systemic loopholes to obtain advanced foreign technology.
As part of the ongoing efforts to build the country into a space power in all aspects, China successfully launched over 200 spacecraft across 60 missions, making it the runner-up to the United States as the country with the most launches in 2023. Furthermore, its most recent successful launch of “Thousand Sails” – a constellation of 18 Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites – clearly signals the country’s ambition to build its own version of SpaceX’s Starlink.
With strong political support and ample funding, China’s comprehensive space program has made steady progress in developing critical space technologies, advanced launch vehicles, long-term crewed space stations, and deep-space exploration capabilities. Its latest “Four Services and Four Arms” military restructuring exemplifies its top-down, concerted effort by the Party to consolidate the management of all matters pertaining to information and space warfare.
The Art of Space Warfare
During the second plenary session of the 12th National People’s Congress (NPC) in 2014, President Xi Jinping stressed the need to “expand the scope and range of Civil-Military Integration (CMI)” and transition from “early-state fusion” to “deep fusion,” or what is formally termed as the Military-Civil Fusion (MCF). The direct outcome of this plenary session was elevating the MCF model to a national strategy. Within the same year, the State Council released official guidelines encouraging private capital and firms to participate in the commercial space industry. The fundamental difference between the MCF and a traditional military-industrial complex, characterized by a “private” supply and “public” demand relationship, is that the MCF bestows government legitimacy on the PLA to leverage commercial resources for military use. Backed by the support of national laws, the Chinese government can weaponize any commercially developed cutting-edge space technologies as they see fit without the consent of key stakeholders.
The major opponent blocking China’s path on the “Road to Rejuvenation” is the United States. To contest U.S. influence in space and prepare for future wars, China is ramping up efforts to enhance its space-based Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems and various advanced counter-space weapons systems.
Two notable technologies within the C4ISR system are the Gaofen Optical Remote Sensing Satellite (ORSS) and the BeiDou Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). The first is a series of civilian high-resolution satellites that were periodically launched into space beginning in 2013 with the purpose of conducting land surveys, urban planning, and weather forecasting missions. However, ambiguous language in the official release of the Gaofen’s satellite, as well as the underlying mechanisms of military-civil fusion at play, has allowed the Party to use Gaofen in reconnaissance and spying missions on and off of battlefields. Such deeds, while not directly violating international laws, undermine international norms and the spirit of international treaties, such as the 1967 Outer Space Treaty that promotes the peaceful use of outer space.
BeiDou GNSS, a navigation system launched in 2000, aims to provide an alternative to the U.S.-developed GPS and deliver China operational independence in real-time tracking and positioning. The BeiDou constellation has become the world’s largest GNSS, with a network of 56 operational satellites. The 55th satellite, launched on June 23, 2020, freed China from its reliance on Western-provided GNSS service. The Chinese government also continues to build additional ground infrastructure overseas to support the navigation system and improve data accuracy. Examples of countries where China obtains permission to build space-related infrastructure, such as satellite tracking stations and space surveillance telescopes, include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela. Not only do these South America-based ground stations provide coverage of the skies over the Southern Hemisphere, but they also equip China with an enhanced ability to monitor and collect intelligence on the United States and its space activities.
While the dual-use of modern GNSS is by no means a new tactic, China is leveraging space technologies as a strategic tool to advance its geopolitical objectives, including: projecting regional economic clout, deepening users’ reliance on China-provided space-based services, and gaining controlling shares in local satellite navigation industry and service markets abroad.
As part of formal defense and strategic cooperation with Pakistan, the China Satellite Navigation Office (CSNO) granted Pakistan access to the BeiDou GNSS’s military signal in 2020, which reduced Pakistan’s reliance on the United States and set an ominous precedent; it serves as a prime example for other countries that wish to shift their dependencies away from U.S. military equipment. Furthermore, if China pursues a “reunification campaign” with Taiwan, which U.S. intelligence officials indicate could occur as early as 2027, Gaofen and BeiDou could be weaponized – with the former powering the target acquisition and the latter providing accurate timing and navigation – to aid missile attacks.
A 2016 white paper released by the State Council of China also states that the country intends to develop space technologies and utilize space resources for “peaceful” purposes. However, the move to promote the status of MCF to the national level contradicts this stated intention where it blurs the lines between the commercial and military sectors. As a result, firms and research institutions worldwide engaged in joint research and development efforts with China could contribute to enhancing PLA military capabilities without prior knowledge and consent.
Implications for the International Community
China sees space superiority as a critical component in realizing its “China Dream.” As such, China’s space initiatives are heavily linked with its grand strategy, diplomacy, and economic statecraft. Using BeiDou GNSS as the building block for its “Space Silk Road,” China offers its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) client states priority and free access to navigation satellite data and provides a range of customized space goods and services. The entire space infrastructure package carried through CCP’s development financing strategies thus deepens China’s financial entanglement with recipient states and strategically reduces Western influence in the region.
Developing countries engaged in bilateral trade agreements with China should be aware that the latter has a long track record of deploying economic coercion through trade blocks. Therefore, non-BRI developing countries such as Honduras, Afghanistan, and Liberia, that lag in achieving technological independence should use any combination of the four existing GNSS services to diversify their options.
In the meantime, these countries should also diversify their market structure to weaken the effectiveness of such coercive economic measures. BRI countries that rely on BeiDou GNSS’s military signal, now or in the future, should be aware of the possibility of falling into a “tech trap”—being denied access to this critical system—if and when geopolitical conflicts with China arise.
Eric Lin is a YPFP member and recent graduate of Bard College with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics, and a Bachelor of Music in Classical Viola Performance. He is a quantitative researcher by training that is also passionate about analyzing international relations, and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion initiatives.
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