Charged Affairs

Channing Lee | Rising Expert on National Security | January 5, 2025 | Photo Credit: Flickr

Last January, Taiwan enlisted its first batch of recruits for an extended year-long military service, a decision reflecting rising concerns about China’s threat. But as The Washington Post reported in August, implementation has been underwhelming. Across the strait, Chinese president Xi Jinping allegedly marked 2027 as the deadline for invasion preparedness. Despite this, polls consistently indicate that a slim majority of Taiwanese citizens worry about war, and recent provocations barely moved the needle. Political polarization and a divided information environment stand out as issues that threaten national unity and endanger Taiwan’s warfighting readiness.

Since transitioning from autocratic rule nearly 40 years ago, Taiwan has received accolades for democratic strength, consistently ranking highly in democracy indices. Such assessments are not inaccurate, but they veil challenges of polarization and corruption in Taiwan’s political system.

Taiwan is dominated by two political parties: the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The KMT initially implemented war-time martial law after fleeing from mainland China. During this time, Taiwan transformed into an “Asian tiger”, posting impressive economic development since 1945 and initiating democratization in 1987. The DPP won its first presidential election in 2000. The DPP has elevated Taiwan’s international profile by positing that it’s an independent country and cultivating a sense of Taiwanese identity. While KMT supporters feel more connected to the mainland, DPP supporters are more likely to support independence.

These historical roots remain entrenched in present-day politics and drive polarization. Because democratization occurred relatively recently — my immigrant parents still recall a childhood under martial law — memories of incidents like the 228 Massacre and legacy family politics continue to shape voters’ views. The distinction between waishengren (who arrived in Taiwan from mainland China after the civil war) and benshengren (who settled on the island prior to or during Japanese colonization) that defined initial generations of the Republic of China on Taiwan still lingers, with the former more likely to support the KMT and the latter more likely to support the DPP.

Corruption among political leaders, marked by scandals of greed, embezzlement, and bribery, also contributes to polarization. Former DPP President Chen Shui-bian was imprisoned for money laundering, and various KMT leaders have faced similar allegations of tax evasion, insider trading, and perjury. Ko Wen-je, who promised scandal-free politics with his new Taiwan’s People’s Party, was arrested earlier this month over alleged misuse of campaign funds.

Historical grievances and incidents of corruption have led party loyalists across the political spectrum to view charges and convictions as politically motivated. Guilty or innocent, every new accusation has further fragmented politics. 

Taiwan’s divided media landscape exacerbates polarization, despite ranking highly in global press freedom. Most media are politically biased; only 33% of citizens trust the news.

Taiwanese media therefore serve more as a vehicle for entertainment and culture, with social media the most common news source. During a recent trip to Taiwan, I spoke with several people who claimed to not watch television, occasionally browsing YouTube to catch up on headlines or hear commentators bash their most despised politicians. However, unlike Americans who defend their news sources along party lines, the vast majority of Taiwanese distrust even the media that align with their own political views.

On top of these domestic challenges, Taiwan is the democracy most targeted by foreign online disinformation campaigns as Beijing attempts to influence the information environment through “cognitive domain operations.” Ahead of January’s presidential elections, Beijing flooded Taiwan with fabricated polls, false claims about US pork, politician deepfakes, and more in an effort to oust the incumbent DPP and sow mistrust of the United States. Taiwanese civil society, despite a robust fact-checking culture, faces an uphill battle against Beijing’s growing information warfare capabilities.

Many Taiwanese citizens thus find themselves with little credible information about the threat they face. Political leaders, too, tend to downplay risks, leading to public complacency about the possibility of conflict.

For most Taiwanese, uniting with the People’s Republic of China is a non-starter, while declaring outright independence remains too dangerous. As numerous people stressed to me in Taiwan, people see no viable option besides maintaining the status quo. 

Warnings of war ring empty especially to Taiwan’s youth, who have only experienced peacetime yet struggle with high unemployment rates, stagnated low wages, and mental health issues.

These domestic issues have propagated political polarization and a poisoned information environment, which offer fertile breeding ground for politicians (and foreign malign actors) to further aggravate domestic tensions and deteriorate public faith in democracy at a time when the island needs national unity.
Taiwan’s leaders are now trying new tactics to improve psychological readiness. In addition to increasing conscription time, last February Taiwan unveiled its first indigenous submarine to boost national morale. Meanwhile, a new television series called Zero Day depicting Chinese invasion sparked an emotional response upon its trailer’s release in July. While these efforts are positive, Taiwan must also prioritize addressing internal divisions to secure its future.

Channing Lee is an associate director for foreign policy at the Special Competitive Studies Project and the Young Professionals in Foreign Policy rising expert in national security.